Role of statistics in decision-making

Federal Court. Can it be said that "evidence that a particular cohort of persons has a 13% chance of recidivism is equivalent to a statement that 13 out of 100 persons in the cohort will reoffend but that evidence, by itself, says nothing about the likelihood of a particular member in the cohort reoffending"? Did cl 6.3(5) contain a mandatory consideration? Are the offences to which cl 13.1 of Direction No 79 is directed "violent and/or sexual crimes against women, children and vulnerable members of the community"?

Some of the questions to the Federal Court (FCA) were as follows:

Question 1: Cl 13.1.2(1)(b) of Direction No 79 required the decision-maker to, in considering the risk to the Australian community, take into account "The likelihood of the non-citizen engaging in further criminal or other serious conduct, taking into account available information and evidence on the risk of the non-citizen re-offending..". Can it be said that "evidence that a particular cohort of persons has a 13% chance of recidivism is equivalent to a statement that 13 out of 100 persons in the cohort will reoffend but that evidence, by itself, says nothing about the likelihood of a particular member in the cohort reoffending"?

Question 2: Cl 6.3(5) of Direction No 79 enunciated the following principle: "Australia has a low tolerance of any criminal or other serious conduct by people who have been participating in, and contributing to, the Australian community only for a short period of time. However, Australia may afford a higher level of tolerance of criminal or other serious conduct in relation to a non-citizen who has lived in the Australian community for most of their life, or from a very young age". Can it be said that "cl 6.3(5) does not contain a ‘mandatory relevant consideration” and that its effect was only to “inform” the decision-maker’s consideration of the primary and other considerations contained (relevantly) in cll 13 and 14 of the Direction No 79"?

Question 3: Are the offences to which cl 13.1 of Direction No 79 is directed "violent and/or sexual crimes against women, children and vulnerable members of the community"?

The FCA answered those questions as follows:

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